Ermenegildo Zegna - Q4 2025 TU
February 2, 2026
Transcript
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Hello everyone, and thank you for standing by. The Ermenegildo Zegna Group FY 2025 preliminary revenues call will be beginning in 1 minute's time. We thank you for your patience. Good afternoon, good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Ermenegildo Zegna Group FY 2025 preliminary revenues call. Please note that today's material and presentation are available under the zegnagroup.com website. Joining us today, the Zegna Group leadership team, including Gianluca Tagliabue, Group CEO. Before we begin, we need to point out that the team will make certain forward-looking statements during the call. The Group's actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Also, these statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described in our SEC filings. Please refer to the forward-looking statements cautionary statement included at page 2 of today's presentation.
I'll now hand over to Gianluca Tagliabue.
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Our first call is Executive Chairman and for Gianluca Tagliabue, as Group CEO. Very exciting indeed. As you know, in November last year, we announced a new leadership structure, a positive step forward for me and for our group, having appointed Gianluca Tagliabue, as Group CEO, and Edoardo and Angelo Zegna, my two sons, members of the fourth generation of the family, as Co-CEO of the Zegna brand. This decision marks an important milestone to further strengthen our group and smoothly prepare the next generation of leaders who will carry forward our legacy, just as we have done for over a century and will continue to do so. By 2025 also is an important year for our business performance, particularly for the Zegna brand. The group total revenue were EUR 1.9 billion, with Zegna brand reaching EUR 1.2 billion.
These results were driven by the strategic DTC channel. In Q4, both the Group DTC and Zegna DTCs delivered a sound 10% organic growth. For Zegna in particular, these results have been led by Americas and EMEA, with also China slightly improving, although remaining volatile. The Zegna brand strategy over the past years has been clear and coherent. In 2025, we delivered consistent and strategically aligned milestones, from the fashion show in Villa Zegna in Dubai to the Art Basel partnership, from the launch of the Vellus Aureum Collection to Villa Zegna in Miami. And last but certainly not least, the recent beautiful Fall/Winter 2026 fashion show in Milano, a family closet, where the brand opened the doors of the family closet, taking pieces from the family wardrobe, including mine as well as those of my grandfather.
Because a closet is much more than a space in which we keep our garments protected. For us, it is a shrine where the beauty of cherished items is celebrated. In the family closet, Alessandro Sartori represented Timeless Collection, pieces designed to remain alive for generations to come. Because only memories can define identity and give the unique meaning they earn over a lifetime, something only Zegna heritage and mastery can create. The show was acclaimed by press, buyers, and clients as one of the best this menswear fashion week. The fashion show was complemented by Villa Zegna Milano, our private club, an invitation-only temporary store reaffirming once again in Milan the strength of this format, which allows Zegna guests to experience our family heritage, century-old textile excellence and leadership in craftsmanship and su misura.
Bravo to all people, starting with Sartori, Edoardo, Angelo, and who conceived this concept and continue to deliver strong and consistently improving results. I just want to emphasize that unless we had our Filiera from textile down to the clothing chain, we could have never achieved these results. So bravo also to all factory people and the know-how of our tailors and artisans in the factory. Let me now comment on Tom Ford Fashion, which in 2025 was a year in which you further shaped the evolution of the brand's fashion business. The first collection designed by Haider, which is the Winter 2025 collection, received very good results, as noted during last year's earnings call. In the past weeks, we have been introducing the Spring 2026 collection, the second by Haider. That is, as we speak, also receiving a real positive response in the store.
But above and beyond this, the team led by Lelio Gavazza is working to cement Tom Ford as a true brand of influence in the high-end fashion industry. We know that our journey is not yet complete, but the team is built, the plan is set, and we now have to execute together. Our priority for 2026 will be to reinforce the brand momentum and resonance and to expand its high-end customer base. Moving to Thom Browne, in 2025 we continued on our path to reduce the brand exposure to the wholesale channel. As you know, we appointed Sam Lobban, a CEO, to transform the company into a retail-first organization. I am pleased to see the initial, although still timid, results of this strategy. Q4 DTC delivered good growth, even if still driven by new opening.
We all know these results are not yet where we want them to be, but they confirm that we are starting to take the right step. Our focus for 2026 will be to deliver sound DTC, comparable store sales growth, to sharpen our collections and marketing strategy. This will allow us to evolve our customer base and continue elevating the quality of our wholesale partner. And lastly, I want to comment on our filiera. It continues to be our state-of-the-art laboratory, where we test, refine, and develop fabrics that represent the absolute pinnacle of the luxury world and where our craftsmanship, know-how, continues to set us apart. We remain the custodian of this heritage while strengthening it further because we know it is what makes us different from any other player in the history.
The Trofeo wool fabrics, our iconic fabrics born in 1965, reinterpreted today and presented at the Zegna fashion show, is further evidence of it. Looking to the year ahead, I believe we all agree that we must face a new normal. By new normal, I mean a world more uncertain and less predictable. In this context, agility, coherence, vision, speed, together with talents, will make the difference. We know the road may not always be linear, but we must face it with determination, prudence, and with the same courage that has always distinguished my family and our group, the courage to be pioneers while remaining true to who we are. As the main shareholder of the Ermenegildo Zegna Group, our family, and I personally are fully committed to growing it and to making it even more solid for the generation to come.
This is the undisputed goal for Gianluca, Edoardo, Angelo, Lelio, Sam, and myself, and for the entire leadership team. Thank you.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Good morning and good afternoon to all of you. Before commenting on the full year 2025 revenues, let me begin by expressing my gratitude to the board, our shareholders, and above all to Gildo Zegna for the trust shown in my regard. It is an honor as well as a clear responsibility to step into my new role, and I will carry it out with the utmost respect for our unique century-long heritage. In my new capacity, I will work closely with the CEOs of our brands, Sam, Lelio, Angelo, and Edo, to ensure that we can fully leverage the group's strengths in integration and accelerate our ambitions. At the same time, I will continue to oversee our manufacturing platform of finished products and corporate functions.
Gildo Zegna has been a mentor to me, and I know he will continue to stand by my side and by all of ours to continue to guide us and safeguard our unique legacy. So thank you, Gildo Zegna. Let me now move to page 8 of the presentation. As always, I will comment on the organic performance, which excludes foreign exchange impacts and therefore better reflects the underlying business dynamic. In 2025, we reached EUR 1.917 billion in revenues, +1% versus last year, and EUR 591 million in Q4, up 4.6% organic. In the last quarter of the year, Zegna brand reported EUR 362 million, +7%, driven by the DTC channel that has been landed at +10% for the brand. Thom Browne reached EUR 91 million, +1.4% organic, and Tom Ford Fashion reached EUR 98 million, up 1.5 points.
Let me now move to the following pages for a deep dive. Turning to page 9, we comment on the performance by brand in the quarter. Zegna brand recorded EUR 362 million in revenues, +7% growth, driven by the solid sequential acceleration in the DTC channel, specifically in Europe, the Middle East, and Americas. Thom Browne reported EUR 91 million in Q4, +1, also in this case, driven by a good performance in DTC, driven by new openings. Tom Ford Fashion landed at EUR 98 million in revenues, +1 organic, with the DTC channel growing faster. Finally, we observed textile growing at +1. Moving now to page 10, we see revenues split by geography.
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa represented 36% of total revenues in full year 2025 and was up +7% in Q4, with a solid performance in the DTC channel, in particular at Zegna brand, which offsets a negative impact of the wholesale channel rationalization. The Americas, which accounted for 30% for the full year revenues, recorded a +16% increase in Q4 despite the challenging comparison of the last quarter of last year. This performance was underpinned by the strong DTC momentum at Zegna brand, which continues to deliver outstanding results thanks to the robust brand momentum and the team fully capable of executing our strategy. Indeed, Zegna brand continued to grow sound double digits in the US as well as with the US consumer cluster. Moving on to the Greater China region, in full year 2025, the region accounted for 23% of total revenues.
So it's half of the incidence compared to the time of listing of our group in 2021. In Q4, GCR reported a revenue decrease of -10%, a sequential softer performance compared to Q3, which is only due to Thom Browne and Tom Ford and to the wholesale channel across this in this case, the wholesale channel across the three brands, whose quarterly performance was influenced by different delivery times. Zegna DTC specifically improved in the quarter, while still being negative. We expect China to remain volatile throughout the year. And as you know, we planned accordingly the budget of 2026. Last, the rest of Asia Pacific in Q4 reported +5% growth driven by sequential improvement at both Zegna and Tom Ford Fashion, specifically in Japan and Korea.
Moving to page 11, let me go quickly through it since we will comment on the trend by channel for each brand. I will only highlight that the DTC channel at group level reported +10% growth in Q4, in sequential acceleration compared to +9% in Q3. In full year 2025, DTC accounts for 82% of group's branded revenues, which, as you know, exclude textile and other revenues, which are B2B businesses. Let's move now to page 12, where we deep dive on Zegna brand revenues by distribution channel. In Q4, Zegna DTC revenues grew 10%, accounting for 88% of full year 2025 brand revenues. As we mentioned, we saw an acceleration of performance in the last quarter, notwithstanding the solid base of comparison across regions in Q4 of last year.
As we mentioned, the Americas and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa continued to report solid double-digit growth. The Greater China region revenues remained negative, but with an improved trend compared to Q3. Revenues from the Chinese cluster improved sequentially in the quarter to a mid-single-digit negative. At the end of December, the number of Zegna DOS was unchanged compared to the end of September. Moving to wholesale, where the brand's revenues were down -17% Q4 and accounting now for 12% of overall revenues for the year, the performance reflects the deliberate actions put in place by the brand to rationalize the distribution of iconic Zegna products and to increase direct control on the distribution channels. Moving to page 13, Thom Browne revenue split by distribution channel.
DTC revenues for Thom Browne were +11% in Q4 in sequential acceleration driven by Americas and Japan, supported by some relevant store openings such as New York Madison Avenue, Los Angeles Melrose Avenue, Palm Beach, and Ginza, Tokyo. In the quarter, Thom Browne had one net DOS closure in Asia. As broadly discussed during the year, the brand is continuing its activity to defocus from the wholesale channel, reducing volumes injected. Thus, the wholesale channel reported a -14% in the quarter and -40% in the full year. As already anticipated, we will continue to see negative performance in the wholesale channel also in 2026, thus at a significantly lower degree than the 40% seen this year. Let's now move to the last but not least, Tom Ford Fashion revenue split by channel, page 14. In Q4, Tom Ford Fashion reported DTC growth of +5%.
This performance reflects a sequential deceleration versus Q3, as already indicated in our prior call, since the higher base of comparison and the decision to place significant emphasis on Haider First Collection in Q3, which has been supported by strong commercial and marketing activation. Let me also anticipate that the brand has started the year positively, benefiting from the very good reception of the spring collection. At the end of December, the number of Tom Ford Fashion DOS was unchanged compared to the one of September. The wholesale channel reported -4% in revenues in Q4, in line with our strategy to strengthen direct control on distribution. On page 16, you find a summary of the group's store network, which is now composed of 282 directly operated stores for Zegna, 123 DOS for Thom Browne, and 66 for Tom Ford.
Before opening to the Q&A, let me conclude with a brief comment on Saks Global. Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on January 13. Saks is an important partner for many luxury brands, including our group. We are closely monitoring the situation as Saks works to stabilize its operations and to negotiate terms, also with respect to past due receivables, with all vendors, including ourselves. At this stage, these discussions remain ongoing. Their outcome is still uncertain. Our group has the financial and business strength to absorb this extraordinary event, considering the limited incidence of Saks Global on the Zegna Group revenues. Paola, now I defer to you in the Q&A session.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Gianluca. Thank you, Gianluca. Please, operator, can you open the Q&A session?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question today, please do so now by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and would like to be removed from the queue, please press star and then two. Our first question comes from Chris Huang with UBS. Chris, please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Hello. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. It's Chris from UBS. First of all, congratulations on the very strong results at the Zegna brand DTC. I'll actually start with my first question on Zegna brand DTC. I was doing some calculations and looking at the comments you just gave on Chinese consumers; it does seem like the brand, excluding Chinese, accelerated in Q4 around high teens % growth year-over-year. Can you maybe confirm if that is the right understanding? And also connected to that, what is the mood you are seeing year to date in 2026? Of course, if we put aside China due to the different timing of Chinese New Year, but I just wanted to understand a little bit more, any color you can give on the start of the year for other markets. Second question on FX.
I think we've been hearing some of the other peers reporting so far in Q4. So with the current rates in mind, can you help us a little bit on what kind of FX impact you are expecting for 2026? On an even margin level, how much of a headwind we should expect? Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. So Chris, thank you. Thank you for the questions. I think they are both for Gianluca, even if maybe on the first one, I'm sure that also Gianluca wanted to add some color on the start of the year. The first one is on the calculation ex Zegna DTC ex China, if it is on the high teens as calculated, and then on the Forex.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
You're good in math, Chris. Yes, I think it's a right calculation. In terms of Forex, we have seen 2.6% headwind on currency this year. It's the delta between reported growth and organic growth. We are seeing something similar for the year. So that is our budget if we expect currencies this way. Of course, part of that can be mitigated by hedging. Of course, we have hedged specifically very much so spring 2026. We are already well covered on fall 2026, but of course, this will fade out. So there will be definitely an impact also from currency. That's why I think, if you remember, I talked about margin in 2026 moving sideways because inevitably, if this is 2-3 points, will have partially an implication on the numbers, still partially covered by hedging, but not entirely.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Any color on the start of the year, excluding China that Chris is saying now? We know that the Chinese New Year is having an impact.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Okay. So Chinese New Year, I don't need to remember, but last year was 29th of January. This year is on the 17th of February. So comparing January to January, we are against the peak season of last year. So if you isolate, if we isolate the effect of the calendar of Chinese New Year, we don't see a trend significantly different in DTC, of course, from the one of Q4 2025.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Any color by market?
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
No, we see resilience in America. America keeps being our number one market in terms of percentage growth, followed by the Gulf area. I think Europe is doing pretty well. We just are past January, and I think that January is following the trend of Q4. So far, so good.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Chris, if we answer, shall we move to the second?
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
Yeah.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Operator?
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Anthony Charchafji with BNP Paribas. Anthony, please go ahead.
Anthony Charchafji (Analyst)
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. It's Anthony from BNP Paribas. First question would be on Zegna retail and the productivity that is now quite close to 20,000 per square meter. I think you're targeting close to high single-digit improvement per year. Can you just remind us the key drivers here and also remind us the rollout of your new perfume for the Zegna brand and what impact could it give for full year 2026? My second question would be on the profitability indication, probably for this year, if I may. The consensus is at around EUR 173 million, and if you see some upside or not given the strong DTC. My third question. I'm a bit sorry to ask about Saks, but really curious to know your exposure at group level. You have a few shop-in-shops for especially Zegna and Tom Ford, I think.
On top of revenues, maybe an indication on the inventory exposure and if there is anything to flag in terms of potential provision or how we should model this. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Ciao, Anthony. Yes. So the first question is on Zegna productivity and the key drivers for this year and also going forward. So for sure, it's for Gianluca as much as the perfume rollout, which has just started in any case, so very early. Sorry. The second question, did you ask consensus 2026 or 2025?
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
'25.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
EBIT 2025, okay? And Saks exposure, I think they're all really for Gianluca.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
So the Zegna DTC, you said it's on the EUR 20,000 per square meter. So of course, that is one driver of growth not just for 2026, but for the three-year. And the drivers so far will continue to be mix and price, price mix together. Of course, we have been elevating the offer successfully, and it's keep on growing. So for instance, now we have launched a new version that is the NAM version of Triple Stitch, which goes in the same direction. We are intensifying the density of the collection of Vellus Aureum. More will come through the year. So mix will continue being the driver of our growth together with events, which means the activations that we are doing above and beyond the stores. The Villa Zegna is a perfect example, but there are some that are less visible, which are suites or trunk show.
So that world of elevated offering, elevated moments is the main driver of our increase of productivity. Zegna Friends, from a client perspective, you see this reflected in the growth, which is very positively double-digit on Zegna Friends, still in 2025, and will continue doing so next year while we not only foster the already existing Zegna Friends, but as we have exposed in some of the recent meetings, we are targeting what we call the doers, that are the clients that are slightly lower the threshold Zegna Friends that we want to then elevate and bring them into the threshold of Zegna Friends, which I recall is some clients that are spending EUR 50,000 per year with us. In terms of consensus, the one that you mentioned, I think for 2025, the EBIT is reasonable.
Of course, pending the effect of a bad debt accrual that is linked to Saks Chapter 11 evolution. So if you isolate that, yes, it is reasonable. We need to take into consideration, which is something we cannot do today because we are monitoring the evolution, and we will continue doing so right until March when we publish the numbers, what is the situation and the needed bad debt accrual that we have to book, which is, of course, something that is extraordinary, and it's affecting the exposure. You mentioned inventory. I think it's not an issue of inventory. It's a question how much we need to accrue in terms of bad debt. Inventory is not an issue because it's more on the credit side. Of course, I think I also answered on Saks.
We cannot comment more than this because it's all in flux, and we are having clear conversations with them. I think more than this, we cannot comment.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
I don't know if the question, Anthony, was also on the Saks overall revenues exposure or if in any case, I think it has been said, but it's in the low, middle, single-digit area.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Yeah. So the overall magnitude of Saks Global in the different dimensions, Saks, Neiman, and BGs represents a low single-digit incidence on our group's revenues. So that's why we face the situation with looking forward with optimism that we can offset the impacts of this situation.
Anthony Charchafji (Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Thank you.
Anthony Charchafji (Analyst)
Go ahead. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Grazie, Anthony. Thank you. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chiara Battistini with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Chiara Battistini (Analyst)
Thank you very much. It's Chiara Battistini from JPMorgan. I have a couple of questions, please. The first one on the U.S. that strongly accelerated in Q4. I was wondering if you could deep dive a bit more on the drivers of this acceleration, especially between new customer acquisition versus the returning customers that you're trading up, and then also whether you could share some detail on budget size and conversion and ASP and how those are evolving, especially in the U.S. And then the second question on the wholesale numbers at group level for both Q4 and 2026.
On Q4, I was just wondering if there was any impact from Saks, maybe if you held back any shipments that might have had a negative impact on the wholesale development in Q4, and then any early guidance on how to think about wholesale for the three brands into 2026, please? Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Grazie, Chiara. Thank you. Okay. I think they're both for Gianluca, but then if Gianluca wants to comment more on the US market, I'm sure that he can give us some nice colors. On the wholesale, it's Gianluca for sure.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
It's a mix of things. I think that Zegna is continuing to be extremely successful both with loyal clients and with new clients coming in, whether through the Triple Stitch or through a new tour. So of course, Villa Zegna has been an important driver. So Zegna is a very rounded acceleration across the board. Tom Ford, Thom Browne, there is definitely, as I said before, some openings, which has generated new clients, whether it's New York Madison or it's Melrose Place. And Tom Ford has been a very good acceptance of the new collection that has been put together starting in August and September because that was the peak moment of pushing the collection of Haider, but also through Q4. And as we commented at the beginning of this year in January, we have seen good momentum on spring.
So I think the three brands are seeing good traction in the US. In wholesale, your question, we are definitely wholesale will not be a driver of growth in 2026. We expect the decrease to be lower than this year for the three brands. Of course, it will also depend on the Saks evolution. So at the moment, before any major change on the Saks landscape, the wholesale channel is expected to be high single-digit negative for the year with a higher decline on Thom Browne, which could be in the low double-digit negative range. So that is the scenario that we have in front of us, of course, isolating any situation on Saks that for the time being is still fluid in terms of evolution.
Chiara Battistini (Analyst)
Thank you. Just to confirm, also for the Zegna brand, sorry.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Sorry? For the Zegna brand?
Chiara Battistini (Analyst)
The wholesale channel will remain negative in 2026.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Yeah. Yeah. As I said, if I said high single-digit at group and Thom Browne is low double-digit, means that Zegna will be negative into low.
Chiara Battistini (Analyst)
Perfect. Grazie.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Thank you, Chiara. If you have a follow-up, we can move to another question, another analyst. Sorry.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Bunmi Kanabar with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Bunmi Kanabar (Analyst)
Hi. It's Bunmi from Jefferies. Congratulations on the results today. Just two questions from me, if I may. Are you able to quantify what the Dubai Salotto and Villa Zegna Milan contributed to organic growth in Q4? And then secondly, you commented on your happiness with EBIT consensus for the full year, but on the revenue base reported today, consensus has about a 13.9% margin for Zegna segment. Do you think this can get above 14% or close to 15% given the operating leverage from Q3 and Q4?
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. On Villa Zegna, well, it has not impacted Q4 if this was your question, but I leave Mr. Gildo to comment a little bit more on Villa Zegna, which I think is a very important concept that we will continue to leverage on. On the EBIT, in particular, the question was on Zegna brand EBIT for full year 2025. If I understood well, I leave then Gianluca to comment.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
I want to stick to the comment on consensus at group level for the time being, because there is also.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Is not.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Yeah. But when we, I think Anthony was asking if we confirm the consensus of EUR 173 at group level, yes, before Saks accruals, yes. Of course, the numbers of Zegna DTC have been specifically positive, so we might see some impact on that, positive impact. Yes, that is to be expected.
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
Okay. Villa Zegna, it's a long journey. We started a few seasons ago with this project, which I think that highlights the personalization and the high-end product of ours. I think the clue there is that we try to localize only Villa Zegna. Villa Zegna are not all alike, but we try to make them one different from the other. I think this is an exciting journey because also a customer that has bought before can find newness and differences on the Villa Zegna to come. That's number one. Number two, I think that more and more customers are embracing this project because it's about experience. It's not about selling because most of the product, you can find the Villa Zegna, you cannot find them in the store.
And so I think the level of service, the level of surprises, the level of experiences, the level of product innovation created by Alessandro Sartori are quite unique. Our intent is to continue this journey. We have a couple of destinations set that are still seekers for this year, but surely we complement new store opening and maybe also market where we don't have stores because that gives us the possibility to reach our customer without knowing of their store. So Milan was extremely successful, more than what we expected, as has been Dubai. And as a matter of fact, for you that want to visit still Villa Zegna in Milan, it will still be there for several months to come. And so enjoy your journey because I think that is something very, very special.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Boomi. Can we move to another analyst or investor?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Hi, Gildo and Gianluca. Congrats on the leadership transition. Regarding what you're seeing in Greater China as well as the cluster, are you expecting things to get less negative there? I know it's a very dynamic and volatile environment. What are you seeing in terms of traffic and/or what you're monitoring with that consumer and how it interplays with your results? Second, regionally, America continues to really execute, but the comparisons get tougher. Do you anticipate double-digit increases at Zegna brand to continue? Which products within the Zegna brand have been performing better versus less good as well would be interesting to know. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. So a couple of questions, very interesting as always. The first one on GCR, are we seeing the environment less competitive, and what are we seeing there? And then the second one, which I'm sure Gildo would take it, is how are we executing in America and what we expect there even if the environment ended, based on comparison for others becoming increasingly challenging. So I might leave the first one for Gianluca and the second one to Gildo if okay for you.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
So in order to see the momentum in China, I've been there recently, early January. So probably we can see some slight improvement in Hong Kong if we want to see the overall picture rather than in mainland. Mainland itself, we are still taking a prudent approach because the environment is volatile. Then we can draw a more definitive conclusion after the end of Chinese New Year, end of February. So for the time being, I would not raise the flag that we see a change in momentum, probably with the exception of Hong Kong.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
For our momentum in the U.S. and our market?
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
No, I said it before. I think our momentum in the U.S., we surely continue for Zegna because we are becoming better and better thanks to the new product offering that is well received by our customer. Number two, we are opening new stores. There is surely a good trend, not only for Zegna, also for Tom Ford. And I think that for Thom Browne, we opened a good number of stores also in the main recently. So we hope that the results will come in 2026. So overall, still bullish on America on the three brands. We know that there is this Saks situation that, as Gianluca said, will be monitored very closely, but we remain positive on the outcome of the situation. And we are continuing investing in both marketing and in new store development, which we have done a few years ago.
I think the results are coming thanks to that foresight and that belief in a market that seems to be resilient to also geopolitical situations, for us at least.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
On wholesale, I had a question on wholesale. Where do you expect it's 12% of revenues in Zegna? But when you look longer out, what do you think the mix of wholesale as a percentage of revenue should be? Perhaps at Zegna as well as Thom Browne. And on the Thom Browne strategy, awareness and marketing is obviously a big opportunity, as well as continuing to commercialize the Thom Browne business. Just would love to know where you are on that journey and key catalysts ahead there as well on the Thom Browne brand. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Did you only?
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
Sorry. You are asking only about Thom Browne or about the three brands? Three brands.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Wholesale at Zegna and then the mix of wholesale at Zegna and then Thom Browne, just strategy awareness build and change. There's change happening.
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
On Zegna? Oh, sure. On Zegna, we are getting close to 90%. I mean, retail versus wholesale. And I think this journey has started quite a while ago when we decided to convert the wholesale into concession. I think that was an important step we have taken. And plus, as the productivity of the store climbed, surely that was a very favorable situation. On Thom Browne, it's a transition. And surely the future will be more in the direction retail. We have decided to cut the wholesale in the past two years. And I think that we still have some little work to do, but I think most of the work has been done. And I think that retail can have a good progress because we have enough stores of Thom Browne around the world. It's just a matter of improving the productivity and to become a stronger retailer.
On Tom Ford, I think America is very strong. We are going to strengthen our distribution in Europe. We can anticipate the new store that will open in Paris on Rue Saint-Honoré by the end of the year. We are opening also Zegna store on the same road. So this is a good coup, plus adding a few stores in America. Asia remains a big territory to be done that will be tapped in due time. But overall, our future is more and more retail and less wholesale for the entire group.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you, Oliver. Let's go to the next one if there are further questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Adrian Duverger with Goldman Sachs. Adrian, please go ahead.
Adrian Duverger (Analyst)
Hey. Good afternoon, Gildo, Gianluca, and Paola. Thank you very much for taking my question, Adrian Duverger from Goldman Sachs. First, congratulations on the great show for Zegna in Milan earlier in January. Then I have three questions if possible. The first one would be on the performance of the Chinese cluster in the fourth quarter and on the underlying demand trends for the group and by brand, and also what you would expect for the rest of 2026. My second question would be on pricing. How do you think about the pricing environment and the overall opportunity to continue to drive higher pricing from the product mix? My last question would be on the higher spending cohort. I think we've seen that they have been quite resilient so far. Has there been an increase in their proportion this year versus last year in your revenue numbers?
If so, do you see any difference between the different geographies? Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you, Adrian. Okay. So for the Chinese cluster, sorry, we might not have said, but when we comment cluster, we comment Zegna brand. So the comment on the cluster was referring to Zegna brand. In terms of pricing, how we see the price environment and the spending cohort, so the higher spending cohort, which has remained more resilient this year, I leave to Gianluca and to Gildo to comment on this, on the pricing Gianluca, and then we move forward on the cohort.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Pricing, as we see 2026, we are facing spring and fall with mid-single-digit price increases in order to offset the currency evolution. So that is the pricing we are taking in that regard. It's not a repricing for the sake of repricing, but to offset the currency fluctuation. On the high spending cohort, the evolution, I refer to Gildo. The success on high spending.
Gildo Zegna (Executive Chairman)
I think that we have, in particular, in Zegna and Tom Ford, I think we have set up a goal to go after the big spender. I think that all the product development is in that direction, including the personalization project, which we are second to none. I think every time we apply those assets, we see that the customer spends. So I think that the increase has come more from the high spender than from the less spender. So I think that our goal is to continue going in that direction, both for Zegna and Tom Ford. We are preparing ourselves to do the same with Thom Browne. Know that the personalization project is fueled by the Zegna Filiera, by the Zegna supply chain. This is an advantage.
There is no reason why if it's well done, for Zegna, it cannot be done the same for Tom Ford and Thom Browne. I think this is something that we are developing and strengthening this year for the years to come.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Yeah. And.
On spending cluster, I can add the Zegna side that we see extremely good momentum on the clients above the EUR 25,000 spending. These are the ones that we nurture in order to get to Zegna Friends. And of course, also the ones above EUR 50,000 are the ones labeled as Zegna Friends. So those clusters, 25 to 50 and 50 and above, are the ones that are driving the growth on the Zegna brand specifically. On China, probably one thing that we already mentioned and will become more and more present in 2026 is the pruning of our retail footprint that is going on both on the Zegna brand as well as on Thom Browne. So the numbers of GCR already in Q4, but even more in 2026, we will give preference to rationalization of stores to concentrate business in fewer, better stores.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Adrian, if you don't have a follow-up, we might move to the other question, the other analyst or investor.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Maria Meita with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Maria Meita (Analyst)
Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First, could you please break down the growth at Zegna between price mix and volumes, and how do you see that it's evolving into the next year? And then second, what actions are you planning to undertake at Tom Ford to sort of keep the strong momentum from last year going into 2026? Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Thank you, Maria. I leave to Gianluca to comment on Zegna brand, price mix, and volume, and to the Tom Ford momentum.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
The driver is price mix more than volume and will continue being. This is the pattern. It's consistent with the trajectory and the strategy and the positioning of the brand. We want to focus on elevated items, elevated moments, elevated clients. So price and mix. Price, as I said before, in order to defend the margins rather than just repositioning life or like to increase the margin, but to defend the margin and the mix because we are creating more and more collection that carry sophisticated materials, more elevated details in the making. So mix is the driver together with price.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
In terms of Tom Ford momentum, how we keep this momentum into 2026?
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
Tom Ford will have both comp as well as space. So Tom Ford is today distributed in 60-70 doors. And it's a brand that will deserve 100 stores in the mid-term. So we will also use that lever. And for instance, in the US, consistently with the success that we have seen, we are going to open a few stores in the year. Bal Harbour will be one, for instance, that will be open apart from Paris that Gildo mentioned before. So there will be space. And of course, all the activities that we have been putting together, investing in these years in retail team, merchandising, IT, CRM, are all levers that we are deploying in order to replicate the same go-to-market model of Zegna.
The cadence of product, the activations of clients with CRM tools, all these are the levers that we expect to generate increased revenues on a like-for-like basis.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Operator, I don't know if there are follow-up questions?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Daria Nasledysheva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Daria Nasledysheva (Analyst)
Hi. Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have three. The first one, to follow up on one of the previous questions on China and also given your outstanding performance ex-GCR as of today, is there anything outside of macro that keeps Zegna brand from closing this gap in performance in China versus rest of the world for 2026 and also for the medium term? Because I think that's pretty important. Number two, could you please share your thinking around development of your store base for 2026 across your three brands? Any indications that we could be using for our models and maybe anything to comment also on the CapEx cycle? The third one, can I please follow up on your thinking on EBIT margin development into next year?
How should we be thinking about this, as you said, flattish because of effects between gross margin versus OPEX leverage/de-leverage? Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Ciao, Daria. Thank you for all the three nice questions. First one on China. The question is, is there anything on 2026 that it's outside macro that can cause us for, let's say, limiting our performance in China? And I leave to Gianluca to comment on this. And then the second and the third are more numeric questions on store development and EBIT margin development on 26.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
I think that we monitor ourselves compared to competitors, of course. I think we are seeing more or less in the same location, similar trends. We don't judge to be a specific brand-related topic. It's more related to macro. It's more related to the appetite of spending that we are. Of course, to the fact that there we are not using space as a lever. It's vice versa. We are shrinking the network. So I think probably that is the combination of macro with something that is specific to us. I would just say the network that is not in our favor, it's more on the opposite.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
In terms of development of stores by brand for 2026, you comment already that basically for Zegna, you should assume no space or very little space contribution or not?
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
I want to, we already mentioned Tom Ford. We have definitely three stores that are in the US that are coming. One, it's Bal Harbour, as I mentioned before, San Diego and Costa Mesa. There is Paris.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Very end of the year, so.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
See. Yeah. Mostly will be on the second half in these ones. And there will be [inaudible]. On Thom Browne, there is no impact on DTC space. Probably there will be some stability more than anything else. On Zegna, we have some openings. The most important ones that come to my mind are still a couple in the U.S., San Diego, Scottsdale. There is one in China which I call out, which is counterintuitive because we are reducing, but there is one that we are going to open in Shenzhen Bay, which is an important city from a technological standpoint. We are opening a couple of stores in the Middle East, in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. These are the main relevant openings that we see going forward.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
In terms of margin, Daria asked, you comment on margin 2026 to be flattish. And how you comment on this?
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
No. We confirm the movement on the sideline with possible some improvement on the margin, of course. But there is an impact on the top line coming from the depletion of the effects. So I would not enter into the detail whether it's gross margin or OpEx. We have said that it will be more lateral than a steep increase.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
I will stick to this. Okay. Thank you. Moving to the next one. Grazie, Daria. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Natasha Bonnet with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Natasha Bonnet (Analyst)
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Congratulations on the good set of results at this, particularly the Zegna brand. I've got a few questions. The first, just coming back to your comment on the group EBIT margin, sorry, the group EBIT margin, moving sideways in 2026. What level of growth have you baked in for margins to move sideways? I see consensus has 5.4% organic next year. Do you expect Tom Ford EBIT to turn positive in 2026? Then the guidance, I guess, on EBIT 12% in 2028, that's where consensus is. Does that still make sense? Second question would be, could you please tell us your exposure to the Triple Stitch franchise in 2025? My last question would just be, you mentioned store rationalization at the Zegna brand and Thom Browne in Greater China.
Could you tell us how many stores you're planning on closing this year and next? Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Thank you, Natasha. And sorry. The first, well, we really lost a little bit in translation with all the numbers that you mentioned. But the reality is what I would like to call out is, Natasha, this is a call on revenues. So we might leave all the questions on margins when actually we report margins in March, if you don't mind. So the second question, you had on Triple Stitch, but I didn't get the actual question. Sorry.
Natasha Bonnet (Analyst)
So it was your exposure in terms of revenue now on Triple Stitch.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
exposure. Okay. Yes. It's in line with the 15%, 1.5% that you remember we said. So shoes overall, including also other shoes, is around 20% of our revenues. And Triple Stitch is more, as we said, in the 15%, 1.5%. No changes from the past. And the third question was, or is?
Natasha Bonnet (Analyst)
Sorry. The store rationalization in 2026.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
The number of closures in China. Yes. Yes. You're right. So I leave this to Gianluca. Thank you, Natasha.
Gianluca Ambrogio Tagliabue (COO)
It's not specific to 2026, but in the mid-term, probably we might have 10 stores that we are not renewing at the expiry. So that is ballpark on Zegna. We might have some others also on Thom Browne. Tom Ford is barely distributed. So I don't see a major impact from Tom Ford. But definitely on Zegna, it might be 10 stores, not in 2026.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Yes. Over the medium term. Okay. Natasha, if it is final, we can move to the next one. Not sure if there are other questions on the line.
Operator (participant)
At this time, we have no further questions on the phone lines. And so, Paola, I will hand back to you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you to everybody for the many questions. Actually, we like them all. And of course, we remain at your disposal, Alice and myself, to any follow-up question that you have. We are here anytime. And we reconvene on March 20 for the full year results. Thank you so much. And see you or speak to you very soon. Ciao.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.